The federal minimum wage has been $7.25 an hour since 2009, the longest stretch without a raise since the minimum wage was created in 1938. Because prices have kept rising, it buys much less than it did. In practice, the federal floor matters less every year: thirty states and the District of Columbia set their own minimums above it, and many cities go higher still.
The debate is over what the floor should be and who should set it. Some want a higher federal minimum, such as $15 an hour. Others would tie it to inflation so it rises automatically, as a number of states already do, or set it by region to reflect local costs. Voters have often acted on their own: in 2020 Florida approved a $15 minimum, phased in through 2026, on the same ballot on which the state voted Republican for president.
Where people land
The case for it: Someone who works full time should be able to cover the basics, and higher pay at the bottom reduces turnover and the need for public assistance. Raises have been popular with voters in both red and blue states.
The case against it: A wage set too high for an area can cost jobs or hours, especially for young and less-experienced workers and in places with lower costs and wages. Small businesses with thin margins have the least room to absorb it.
The research is mixed, and honest people read it differently. When the Congressional Budget Office studied a $15 federal minimum in 2021, it estimated that 17 million workers would get a raise and 900,000 people would be lifted out of poverty, and also that 1.4 million jobs would be lost. Studies of Seattle’s increase reached opposite conclusions about whether workers came out ahead.
What you can do
Look up your state’s minimum wage and whether it rises with inflation; the state labor department’s website will have it. If a minimum-wage measure is on your ballot, read the phase-in schedule and the exceptions, such as tipped workers and small employers, rather than just the headline number. Ask a local business owner and a local hourly worker what a change would mean for them. Their answers are usually more specific than the national debate.